№ 01 (3151)

11.01.2006

Yet the changes are possible!

Political scientists joined in our traditional before New Year`s ritual on the matter of political forecasts for our newspaper, yet without verve. The challenge was to think about the political landscape in 2006 makes them sigh: "Stability..."

This word sounds a bit dullish, yet it is not so simple. Everyone has already got used to call the year 2005 "a year of stability", but the Russian authorities finished to ruin the biggest and the most effective to European measures company YUKOS, and arranged a dubious monetization for the poorest citizens; Tatarstan became the first region, where president renounced his status of national elected and asked Vladimir Putin to reassign him. Political scientist find that this year the "stability" will grow, yet with some new accents.

The republic will not feel any energetic federal actions, - finds Midkhat Farukshin, the member of the Russian political sciences academy, the head of the political sciences department of the Kazan state university, - For the goal of the center is, in my opinion, to make the country ready for the year 2007, when the preparation for the election in the State Duma will begin. If 2006 is nervous, the election`s result would be less predictable for the authorities. So, serenity at any price. Yet there is another method to unit the people around the authority - menace by a foreign enemy, a true or an imaginary one...

There will be no changes in the leading head of Tatarstan, at least till the 70th birthday of Mintimer Shaimiyev (in January 2007 - M.Y.). It is not inconceivable that the president will hold on to his post for his love and even greed for power. Yet if Shaimiyev decides to go away or he must away after his 70th birthday (they say there is such understanding with federal center), then we can await another prime-minister in Tatarstan in 2006.

Under the Tatarstan`s constitution the prime minister assumes responsibility by the retiring of the president. So the castle, as Boris Yeltsin used to say is able. They say Rustam Minnikhanov is unacceptable for the federal center as a candidate for the post of Tatarstan`s president. A new prime-minister, which the federal center would like, has a chance to be an appointed president, guarantying an inviolable Shaimiyev`s power succession in the republic.

It is possible that another party such as "United Russia" will be created (an element of playing a multi-party system). In this case its department in Tatarstan will appear.

Nothing gives ground to doubting that the public life in the republic will also be stable in 2006. The new rise of prices of the housing and communal services after the shock of monetization will not cause a great protest against it. Especially since there will be more and more social gratuity from the federal power this year, concerning the close elections.

- In 2006 the situation in Russia will be more stable, in other words decaying, - says the member of the Russian academy of political sciences, the head of the political sciences department of the Kazan state technical university Vladimir Belyayev. - the English philosopher John Locke contended that the stability is a word with which dictators justify the state of violence and robbery, which is favorable only for robbers and oppressors. On this point we became totally equal to the common Russian situation, all the channels, which could influence the creation of the civil society (mass-media, parties), will be destroyed. It is bad for elite itself. There are some talented managers among it, who could work effectively, if they would depend not only on the on the power, but also on the people. But they have to move forward not looking down, but up, so they go a wrong way.

By our standard of living all the reforms do not guide us to higher quality and moderateness of services - the quality will become better for those who are all right now too. The higher education which becomes more and more accessible in the world is not accessible for two thirds of the population and the situation will become worse. And the fact that district doctors will become much more money from the state will hurt the most qualified medics. I think that in 2006 the discontent of the doctors and nurses can cause public appearances. The goal is real (the question of wage raises is not insoluble for the republican budget with its high financial resources) can bring the medics so to say in the streets.

Some changes in the government of the republic are able in the spring and in the autumn - these are traditional periods of staff changes in Tatarstan. Yet for our president is not very young, and elder people are inclined to stability, no cardinal changes will happen in the kernel of the elite. Mintimer Shaimiyev will not retire in 2006, but before his presidential term expires (2010-M.Y.). The person, who will take his place, will surely be his protege, as Putin thinks that this regime protects the stable situation in Tatarstan.

- The retirement of Mintimer Shaimiyev could be a good New 2007 Year`s gift, but I have some doubt in welcoming this present. - the associate professor of the Kazan state technical university, politic scientist Sergey Sergeyev says. - I can not be sure, but I can assume it after recent events, when Putin appointed Kamil Iskhakov as his plenipotentiary, and Mintimer Shaimiyev appointed Ilsur Metshin as the head of Kazan. Anyway it all depends only on one person - on the Russian president. The appearance of new faces as possible candidates for the main post in Tatarstan must not be ruled out. Airat Khairullin could become one of this people.

The determinant problem for "Shaimiyev`s" elite group in this situation is keeping their control over the main assets of the republican economy. It is possible that in 2006 some steps will be taken to guarantee this control also after the retirement of the Tatarstan`s president. By the way the opposition in Tatarstan can appear only due to a split of the elite (e.g. because of the question about the control over the economics).

As for the idea, which is spoken by the federal authorities in the last time, that the Russian nation should get the status of the state consolidated... If the Moscow Kremlin will really decide to make this gift in the new year, this will be the only method to reanimate the long diseased Tatar ultranationalism. If there is a swamp, devils are still living in it...

Marina YUDKEVICH.