№ 69-70 (3219-3220)

05.05.2006

Rustam Minnikhanov is going to retire. Once again it is being mentioned in the lobby interviews that he is going to resign from the prime-ministership and is going to engage in business. They say he would become the chief executive officer of "Tatneft" company. The present chief executive of the oil cash cow of the Republic Shafgat Takhautdinov is 60 years of age. President Mintimer Shaimiyev even shortened his vacation to take part in the jubilee celebrations. Such kind of pointed respect for Takhautdinov makes the rumors verisimilar that the decision about the new chief executive officer of the public corporation "Tatneft" would be reached at the end of June.

Let us suppose that the fortunes of Takhautdinov and Minnikhaov are predetermined. The reasonable question arises as to whether: who will occupy the main cabinet on the Svoboda place? There are quite many candidates for the prime-ministership.

Tatarstan has no longer any pretensions of the role of the reform leader, not only in the Russian scale, but also in the Volga region. The readiness to realize the really interesting program of the socio-economic development, so called "Life after oil" is even not being demonstrated. Tatarstan solves just point problems. In these conditions the functions of the government shriveled away, they limited themselves to: Cutting up the budget and lobbying preferences, grants and other wealth in Moscow.

People, who are equal to the first task, are very many in Tatarstan. Many could conciliate the conflict of interests of different financial and industrial groups. Only the number of dissatisfied depends on the person. Distributing the money so, that everyone is satisfied is a fantasy, which is not worth any discussion.

The second task is much more difficult. Moscow is not going to cooperate with the first comer. So, the number of candidates for the prime-ministership is getting little. Three candidates are discussed in the lobby interviews: the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tatarstan Asgat Safarov, CEO of KamAZ Sergey Kogogin and the CEO of Tatenergo Ilshat Fardiyev. Yet we should not discount the Kazan mayor Ilsur Metshin and the deputy of State Duma Airat Khairullin. Political power of these persons is growing. Particularly Khairullin, who got rid of his not very attractive image of "bear baron" and concentrated on the more promising (from the political point of view) agribusiness.

Ilsur Metshin is also not a soldier with a marshal baton in his haversack, but a colonel. Only high ambitions of Mr. Metshin can explain why his companion-in-arms (who was his first assistant in Nizhnnekamsk) the head of "Tatmedia" agency Marat Muratov became the deputy of State Duma. The chief of all state mass media, the head of the republican department takes this place not without purpose. He like a secret service man waits for the right moment. If Metshin becomes a prime-minister the city will not be in the tickler of the lack of authority, which will not have any correct legal issue, like it was after assigning Kamil Iskhakov for the place of plenipotentiary. The head of City Duma will become Mr. Muratov.

Everyone of these people has some advantages and disadvantages. Kogogin will suit Moscow best of all, at first like a representative of the not indigenous population of Tatarstan. Talks about an indecent "tatarization" of the power are already boring to death. If a Russian will appear on one of the leading positions in Tatarstan it will be a considered triumph of the national politic of the Moscow government.

Nationality is not a real disadvantage of Safarov. Yet a serious problem will arise if he leaves his post. Formally (if we forget the second task of the government) Kazan could appoint a prime minister without any approvals with Moscow, yet assigning the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic is the prerogative of Moscow. A "Varangian" was assigned in Federal Security Service instead of Alexander Gusev for instance. What if the same happens in the Ministry of Internal Affairs? A foreign minister can make many problems. The lobbying of Rinat Timerzyanov does not have sense after his refusal to become the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Chechnya.

The disadvantage of Ilshat Fardiyev is that he comes from the Shaymiyev family. And Russia is not like Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan. Moscow tries to keep an outward appearance of democracy at least. So the relationship will not be welcome by Moscow may Fardiyev be very clever and have an image of Tatar De Gaulle or J. F. Kennedy. On the other hand Moscow could approve his candidature. It depends on how to negotiate. It is like playing chess: one sometimes should sacrifice the number of pieces to get better positions. So the prime-ministership of Fardiyev is possible. Kazan can let Moscow control over some key enterprises of the Republic and get an agreement for this assignment.

Does Kazan need this sacrifice? Why should Fardiyev be a prime-minister? That’s why: we should consider the coming 70th anniversary of the President Mintimer Shaymiyev and the next elections of the new President in the year 2007. It is obvious that this will be the head of the government, if Mr. Minnekhanov really resigns, this will be a kind of Crown prince of Tatarstan. And Fardiyev’s relationship to Shaymiyev becomes his advantage.

What should the people of Tatarstan wait from these rearrangements? Wait for the worst. The situation will not get better: The new prime-minister will establish new order and the existing system can be destroyed... Like in Kazan nowadays, the people of the ex-major Iskhakov are being replaced in all the fields.

The best decision is to leave everything as it is. There are not any reasonable grounds to change the prime-minister now. We should not wait for any changes in politics and economy. We will follow the mainstream of the Russian politic anyway. There is just one reason of changes, which has no matter with the interests of Tatarstan on the whole – the problem of Shaymiyev’s successor. In these conditions Mintimer Sharipovich cannot follow the mainstream, he should act like Boris Yeltsin once did. Yet it can be all in vain. He can assign Fardiyev or Safarov for the prime-ministership... Yet it does not mean that Putin agrees that Shaymiyev chooses his successor himself. Moscow Kremlin can have his eyes on Kazan Kremlin.

Irek Murtazin, expert of the international Institute of humanitarian and political researches.